Good morning! In this post, I will briefly lay out tomorrow's severe threat. I will have a much more detailed post tomorrow morning.
The models are all hinting at a more heightened severe weather risk tomorrow across the Midwest the models do not agree on a few specifics.
Generally, there will be a MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex, basically just a weak low pressure that forms within a large cluster of storms) coming out of Iowa sometime during late-morning from storms in the central Plains overnight. The placement of these and the values of certain ingredients are a bit unclear, but it is safe to say that this will cause some severe weather, if not some significant severe weather in the Northern half/third of IL early afternoon tomorrow. The NAM has it shooting across the I90 corridor whereas the HRRR has it shooting across just north of the Highway US 24 corridor and north. All threats will be possible with this cluster of storms. This will continue to move east and form more of a damaging wind threat the more east it travels into IN/MI and into OH by late afternoon.
A second area will develop in the afternoon along the Mississippi River and west. For now, these will pose a large hail threat primarily, then more of a damaging wind threat over NE and central IL after dark, but some specifics are unclear with the movement of the MCV before this which could inhabit and cap the environment behind it for a longer period of time if it moves at a slower pace. We will see!
Below I have a outlook map, a possibilities map. Stay tuned!
Good morning guys, who's ready for another full day (two days coming actually) of severe weather! I am!
TODAY: There will be a small area of heightened risk over central and south-central IL this afternoon. Hail and Damaging Wind threat (especially hail is the main concern) from along I72 and south. There is an isolated tornado threat with some small wind shear, but not a strong threat.
These storms will form along and near I72 from Springfield to Pittsfield between 1-2:30, organize, and continue southeast. The environment is very favorable for strong updrafts with CAPE values in the 2,500-3,500+ range within a range of Springfield and west. I would assume they form along a small boundary that was set out from this morning's storms.
So here is my outlook for today as well as a timing map for this small line of storms! Stay tuned!
Good afternoon guys!
It has been awhile since a good severe weather day in Illinois! Well, the next three days are all going to be worth watching, especially today (Friday) and Sunday!
I will mostly discuss today's threat and briefly touch on tomorrow's and Sunday's. I will go more details on those on the day of!
So, even just 6-12 hours before this severe weather setup on folds, the HRRR and the NAM are disagreeing with each other like they always do and this is making things complicated. Both agree that there will be severe storms, and for IL both do agree that there will be some severe storms that will fire after dark in central IL. But, the main action this afternoon across Indiana and Ohio is what is being questioned. The NAM has boldly stuck with this line forming around 3/4 in NE Indiana and NW Ohio and charging south to southeast, this being mostly a damaging wind threat but Hail and a couple Tornadoes are possible as well.
The HRRR is is showing little development until very late, near sunset further south with not as significant as a threat. Although the HRRR was more correct with yesterday's storms, I will guess the NAM to be more in the right today as with what I am seeing with the ingredients as well as there are already a couple storms forming just north of me here in East-central IL which means that the atmosphere is already primed up.
TIMING: Eastern Indiana (into central) and much of the western half of Ohio, be on guard from 3-7 this afternoon as that line segment heads south. If the HRRR will be correct, then there will be little development until 6/7pm tonight.
FOR ILLINOIS: most storms will not initiate until near or after dark due to the front stalling across southern Iowa and Northern IL, with very high instability (3,000-4,000+) among other factors, but develop late due to an enhancement of South to Southwest winds in Iowa which will interact more with the front and cause storms to fire after dark (9/10ish for the first storms).
Due to high instability and high lapse rates, HAIL will be the greatest outmost concern with these (along with damaging wind), which could produce large to very large hail within a small corridor from Southern Iowa and Central IL. These storms will mostly start off in Iowa but expect by midnight a line of storms from Southern Iowa to West-central Indiana, most storms within this line being strong to severe. This threat will terminate by 3/4am hopefully. A tornado or two is also not completely ruled out but wind shear will not be as strong as it is across the IN/OH region this afternoon.
So today should be watched and also look at the radar before you plan and going anywhere in each region and the specified times above.
NAM at 5pm
NAM at 12am
Below I have my thoughts on the outlooks from Saturday and Sunday. I will have many more details in the next two days! These are subject to change. Stay tuned!
NAM 7pm Sunday
FINALLY! An active day of severe weather in Central Illinois! It has been way too long! I am excited to get out and watch and study the storms today!
TIMING: 2-6pm (west of IL River) 5:30-9:3pm (east of IL River)
HAZARDS: ALL severe weather components today (even a couple/few tornadoes are possible)
I am going a little bold within our region today. Below in my outlook, I have put a more specialized risk area for the small region in Central IL that will be at highest risk. I was going back and forth between just keeping it with Slight or bumping it up but based off the latest 12z NAM and HRRR models, I have a MINOR risk area for some part of Central IL today!
The Storms will be developing along and south of a MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) from the storms overnight from the Great Plains, which will be coming out of IA/MO mid-afternoon. with CAPE values in the 1000-1500+ range, dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, a strengthening low level jet (late), and a small area of strong upper level winds (from 4pm and on, this virtually develops out of nowhere), this is a PRIME environment for some severe weather today. This event is actually very similar to the July 15 2020 event in that we have a MCV coming out of the same area and will have a line of storms develop along and just south of it with nearly the same conditions. On that day there were a few tornadoes in our region including one wide one I photographed!
So these storms will ignite along and the the Mississippi River in the 3-5pm timeframe, and will race east in Central IL. I WOULD NOT be surprised if a couple renegade cells form in front of this line (2-5pm) and could pose a hail/tornado threat as well, as the HRRR is hinting on this possibly occurring.
This will finally cool off in Eastern IL and Western IN by 8-10pm tonight
The other area is down in the Ozarks and the Ohio River/Mississippi River region. These storms will form after dark in the Ozarks to Eastern Oklahoma and will race Northeast/East. Some may form in the Ohio/MS River region early overnight as well. All threats with this will be possible but damaging winds are the main component with these!
That is all for now! Stay tuned for tomorrow's Severe weather as well, if anything changes today I will update!
NAM at 7pm
HRRR at 6pm
NAM weather sounding at 6pm showing ample CAPE (the area between the blue dotted line and the red line), Dew Point, and Wind Shear!
Good morning everyone!
Today's severe weather risk is heightened and all should be on guard in these areas. Many tornadoes will be possible and violent long tracked tornadoes are possible as well. Stay alert!
Although there are still some slight differences between the models, the models both agree on a big severe event taking place. Here are the specifics:
There is a large area that will be under a Moderate to High risk for severe storms today, as well as A FEW rounds of storms, not just one!
This region will see a few rounds storms during the day. the first round will be lifting along the warm from reaching the Memphis area by around the 8am timeframe. These will mostly be sub severe although a couple could be severe. This batch will slowly continue northeastward along the warm front. This is where the models start to diverge, but not by much. The HRRR shows a new line of convection coming into the eastern Arkansas region by late 10am. By this time, CAPE values just south of this will be 1,000-1,500, and with enough wind shear, this line could turn severe as it pushes east and continues to strengthen. The HRRR continues to push this to the east into Western Tennessee by noon and really strengthens this line, and continues to stay on the edge of the warm front, tapping into more favorable environments just to the south. This line will dissipate likely by the mid afternoon in central TN but this is the first main round of concern for this region. Below I have a picture of the 1AM HRRR at 11am showing this region.
There will be enough clearing behind this system for storms to fire along the advancing Cold front, and possibly again along the warm front in place from extreme southern MO and through northern and central Tennessee. The line of storms triggered by the cold front will reach Eastern Arkansas by 4-6pm likely. Depending how much destabilization will occur since the passing of the early afternoon storms, will determine how strong these storms can get. Nonetheless, these will be strong but the severe threat including multiple tornadoes will be dependent on this. This line will continue to push East Northeast across the MS River and will continue into Tennessee in the early overnight hours.
Although the threat is quite high in the other region, this area is the greatest concern for the worst threats from this event. In the early afternoon, cells will likely develop in the warm sector in eastern MS and AL (in the pink circled area in the map below. This will be round 1 and these could bring hail as well as tornadoes. These will start to develop around 1pm.
The next main threat is the line that I had already mentioned for the area above. There is a bit more of a heightened risk with this line more south starting in NE LA and into central MS. The line will cross over the MS river at around Duck and will continue into MS and then into AL during the late evening and overnight hours. This line will have every severe threat including the threat of a few tornadoes and some that could be dangerous and long-tracked (triggering the High Risk). Be very careful during the early overnight hours in this region.
THE MAP BELOW shows (in pink) where the threat of the afternoon supercells and then (in the purple) where the highest nighttime threat is with that advancing line of storms. All for now, stay safe everyone!
Good morning guys!
This is the main official post regard the snow for today and tonight here in IL.
Nothing has really changed since my last post. Generally, 1-3 inches of snow fell in most of IL last night. The main round of snow is still to come!
The snow is starting to push north into Southern IL as of 9am this morning. This will continue to push north to northeast as the day progresses. Below I will have a storm timing of snow map below:
Next, I will have a timing of when the heaviest snow will fall during this event. This map is below:
NOW, time for the snowfall forecast. Generally not much has changed since last night's forecast. I am going a little bullish, especially with the 10-14, but latest models suggest that this is possible/likely. We shall see!
All for now! Stay tuned for Wednesday/Thursday's system. The latest NAM suggests 4-8 inches for central IL Wednesday-Thursday. Stay tuned!
Good afternoon guys!
This is my first post over the system that will be coming into our region early this week. In the last 24 hours there has been a huge shift in snowfall totals with this system on the "up" trend. If someone asked be 24 hours ago, I would have said Champaign would get 4-6 from this, now we are possibly going to receive 9-12 from this system. A big change!
We are going to see one minor round of snow with this system and one major round of snow. The minor round of snow will occur Sunday night, which will start after dusk in IL and will mostly move out by daylight from west to east. Generally 1-4 with this round in central and southern IL. Here's a map of the snow at Midnight Monday morning AND the snowfall forecast for Sunday night. Keep in mind, any "Day/night" snowfall forecasts are 12 hour periods. So, Day forecasts are 6am-6pm and night forecasts are 6pm-6am!
Now, for the main round of snow: Monday and Monday Night.
Forecasts are expected to change but this is based off where the situation stands as of now.
There will be a break in snow Monday morning as the first road diminishes and continues to move to the east. The snow will start in extreme Southern IL late Monday morning and will continue to move north throughout the day. Very heavy snow can be expected with this round, especially in Southern and east-central IL.
Below I will have Maps for noon and 6pm Monday as well as a snowfall forecast for Monday.
The heavy snow will continue to move to the northeast. The snow will eventually tapper off from southwest to northeast Monday Night and will be completely out of IL by 6am Tuesday. There's also a lake effect component for the Chicago Lakefront Monday Night so that is also something else to watch for.
Below I will have a Midnight Tuesday morning map, Monday Night forecast, and a TOTAL Snowfall map in general from now until Tuesday. I will have another update Monday Morning!
ALSO, another major system is coming into the Ohio River Valley/Southern App Mountains Wednesday night/Thursday and could bring several inches of snow again to the same areas this system is bringing snow to. Just a heads up!
Thanks for reading! Stay tuned!
Good morning guys!
This post will be talking about the few snow chances that we will be having in the next week PLUS new developments about the cold next week.
First we have a system pushing into our region today (Thursday). Generally no snow south of I72 and most of the heaver snow (2-3+) will be north of I80, so nothing really for central IL.
It will be all rain (besides some light snow in the late afternoon) south of I72.
It will be mostly rain with some snow at the end between I72 and I80.
It will be all/mostly all snow north of I80
The snow will start in northwestern IL around 11 and will push its way East and will start in northeastern IL by 3pm. Generally, the snow will be done in western IL by 6pm and eastern IL by around 9pm.
I will have a snowfall map below but generally, 0-1 inches Highway 136 and south, 1-2 from Highway 136 to I80, 2-4 inches north of I80, and a small area of 4-6 in northwest IL. Although wind won't be a terribly big factor during the day today, although tonight, locations in Northern IL may see gusts 35-40+ mph so some blizzard conditions in those areas that received snow Thursday may see some possible blizzard conditions
Snowfall for Thursday's system
Next, we have two systems after that. One Saturday night and one early next week.
We'll have a couple mini upper level troughs that will bring these small disturbances our way. Below I will have a rough snowfall forecast for Saturday's (evening/night) system, but too far out to tell about early next week's system but generally snow will be possible in the Mid-Mississippi River valley.
Saturday snowfall forecast
NOW for the the cold weather next week.
Earlier this week, I had stated that some very cold weather was coming into IL early next week. Although that is still true, due to new disturbances, the cold is somewhat holding off until mid to late next week. After each system, there is another "punch" of cold air into our region. A semi-cold punch after today's system, a cold punch after Saturday's system (cold Sunday and semi-cold Monday), then very cold mid next week after the system early next week. Generally low temps below 0 and highs in the single digits here in central IL late next week. This is still developing, especially since the system early next week is still uncertain but either way we have some cold coming into IL finally next week!
Stay tuned as always!
Good evening guys!
This is my first update for this weekends system that is charging into the mid Mississippi River Valley this weekend. Models have been somewhat consistent over the past 24 hours about the amount of snow that will fall but have not completely aligned with where that will fall, more specifically, where the main Rain/Snow line will set up , but we still have 18 hours or so until the main event starts here in Central IL.
Generally we have a developing low pressure that will shot out of the southern Rockies tonight and will slowly make its way to eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. I am watching a possible Low severe risk for the areas just to the southeast/south of the main Low Pressure system and my "Day 2 outlook" will be on my outlooks page. Just not enough of about every element for severe weather besides low amounts of everything like Wind Shear and instability.
The precipitation will start here in central IL from West to East during the day Saturday, starting in western IL before 12, and gradually moving northeast word, into East-central IL by 2/3pm. BUT the latest HRRR shows a band of Freezing Rain/Sleet charging into central IL late morning. Something I have to watch in later runs. Most of this will start as mostly Rain, but in east-central IL (and obviously Northern IL once the precip reaches up there), will transition to snow soon after the arrival of rain in the afternoon, it may even start as snow even. That is what the models are not agreeing with at the current time about where the transition is.
Generally, 7-10 inches for now will be the highest amounts falling in north-central IL, although most of this region will be 6-9, some locally 9-10+amounts are possible.
The low pressure will make its way into southern IL Saturday night/Sunday morning, which most of the Precip below highway 136 and south will turn to rain and most to the north will stay as snow. After the system passes, some light snow will likely cover central IL Sunday afternoon for a minimal accumulation of less than a inch or so.
For now I will include my forecast as well as a map indicating what areas will receive what in turns of precip. Thanks and Stay tuned for more!
Current Snowfall Forecast
This is my last post over today's storm. This morning I posted a couple maps on my Facebook as I did not have time to create a post due to the first day of classes today! This is a more detailed update than that one this morning since I have had some time free up this afternoon!
This morning here in Champaign we received less than an inch of snow with a brief window of precipitation this morning. other areas received some ice to the south and west but the precipitation this morning did not go north of I72 in Illinois for the most part as expected. This is the only snowfall that the I72 corridor will see during the whole event besides possibly a dusting at the tail end of the event midday Tuesday.
It is currently 2:30 in the afternoon and the first snow bands are starting to come across the Mississippi River into West-central IL (more specifically the Rock Island/Mercer/Henderson/Warren/Knox county areas). Expect this to continue moving eastward and "fill in" the entire north third of IL by 7pm or so this evening. This will continue as light to moderate snow overnight and into the morning on Tuesday. The Snow will generally tapper off from West to East and IL should generally be in the clear by Tuesday afternoon.
The snowfall forecasts have generally stayed the same today for the most part, besides maybe move a tad to the north. There is a possibility that the Chicago metro area may see 6-8 due to a small enhancement affect from the lake, but we will see. The HRRR picks up on that and the NAM does not.
Below is my Snowfall forecast:
As I discussed in my first post. There will be an ice component to this system as well. Generally in IL this area will encompass everything between I72 and Highway 24. This small region should receive around a tenth to two tenths of Ice during this system but a few localized areas of upwards of a three tenths of an inch of Ice is possible. Here is that area of concern below. Some areas to the north May receive some Ice (mostly Sleet) as well but the main concern will be that area between the I72 and Highway 24 corridors.
Below I will attach a few of the models snowfall maps and precipitation maps at Midnight Monday Night. Also watching a small disturbance Wednesday that could bring 0-2 inches to the Central and Southern IL regions. Stay tuned! Thanks for reading!
HRRR Midnight Monday Night
NAM Midnight Monday Night