Good evening guys!
This is my first update for this weekends system that is charging into the mid Mississippi River Valley this weekend. Models have been somewhat consistent over the past 24 hours about the amount of snow that will fall but have not completely aligned with where that will fall, more specifically, where the main Rain/Snow line will set up , but we still have 18 hours or so until the main event starts here in Central IL.
Generally we have a developing low pressure that will shot out of the southern Rockies tonight and will slowly make its way to eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. I am watching a possible Low severe risk for the areas just to the southeast/south of the main Low Pressure system and my "Day 2 outlook" will be on my outlooks page. Just not enough of about every element for severe weather besides low amounts of everything like Wind Shear and instability.
The precipitation will start here in central IL from West to East during the day Saturday, starting in western IL before 12, and gradually moving northeast word, into East-central IL by 2/3pm. BUT the latest HRRR shows a band of Freezing Rain/Sleet charging into central IL late morning. Something I have to watch in later runs. Most of this will start as mostly Rain, but in east-central IL (and obviously Northern IL once the precip reaches up there), will transition to snow soon after the arrival of rain in the afternoon, it may even start as snow even. That is what the models are not agreeing with at the current time about where the transition is.
Generally, 7-10 inches for now will be the highest amounts falling in north-central IL, although most of this region will be 6-9, some locally 9-10+amounts are possible.
The low pressure will make its way into southern IL Saturday night/Sunday morning, which most of the Precip below highway 136 and south will turn to rain and most to the north will stay as snow. After the system passes, some light snow will likely cover central IL Sunday afternoon for a minimal accumulation of less than a inch or so.
For now I will include my forecast as well as a map indicating what areas will receive what in turns of precip. Thanks and Stay tuned for more!
Current Snowfall Forecast
This is my last post over today's storm. This morning I posted a couple maps on my Facebook as I did not have time to create a post due to the first day of classes today! This is a more detailed update than that one this morning since I have had some time free up this afternoon!
This morning here in Champaign we received less than an inch of snow with a brief window of precipitation this morning. other areas received some ice to the south and west but the precipitation this morning did not go north of I72 in Illinois for the most part as expected. This is the only snowfall that the I72 corridor will see during the whole event besides possibly a dusting at the tail end of the event midday Tuesday.
It is currently 2:30 in the afternoon and the first snow bands are starting to come across the Mississippi River into West-central IL (more specifically the Rock Island/Mercer/Henderson/Warren/Knox county areas). Expect this to continue moving eastward and "fill in" the entire north third of IL by 7pm or so this evening. This will continue as light to moderate snow overnight and into the morning on Tuesday. The Snow will generally tapper off from West to East and IL should generally be in the clear by Tuesday afternoon.
The snowfall forecasts have generally stayed the same today for the most part, besides maybe move a tad to the north. There is a possibility that the Chicago metro area may see 6-8 due to a small enhancement affect from the lake, but we will see. The HRRR picks up on that and the NAM does not.
Below is my Snowfall forecast:
As I discussed in my first post. There will be an ice component to this system as well. Generally in IL this area will encompass everything between I72 and Highway 24. This small region should receive around a tenth to two tenths of Ice during this system but a few localized areas of upwards of a three tenths of an inch of Ice is possible. Here is that area of concern below. Some areas to the north May receive some Ice (mostly Sleet) as well but the main concern will be that area between the I72 and Highway 24 corridors.
Below I will attach a few of the models snowfall maps and precipitation maps at Midnight Monday Night. Also watching a small disturbance Wednesday that could bring 0-2 inches to the Central and Southern IL regions. Stay tuned! Thanks for reading!
HRRR Midnight Monday Night
NAM Midnight Monday Night
Good evening guys!
In this post I will mostly talk about the system that will be tracking into the mid-Mississippi River Valley early next week but I will briefly touch on the weakening system coming into our region tonight (Saturday night). Also, I will have 1-2 updates Sunday (for sure Sunday evening) over Monday's system on here as well.
Generally 0-1 inches of snow from I72 and north in IL, and generally .5-2 north of I80 in northern IL. Also a glaze of ice is possible in Central IL but nothing more than that. Most of this will come late Saturday Night and Sunday Morning.
The much bigger event comes Monday Morning into our region. There's a Low pressure system that will make it's way out of the Ark/La/Tx region Monday morning and shot up to the northeast into the Ozarks region by Monday afternoon. This system starts to lose it's strength into Tuesday over the Eastern Midwest, I would assume due to the occlusion or the weakening of the upper level trough but I hadn't looked into that much yet.
Precip should start in central IL Monday morning and Snow should start in Northern IL (for now) around or just after noon on Monday, with the heaviest snow Monday evening. I will have start times in a later post when this event becomes a little more clear.
First, here's a general "what to expect" of this system map I made:
There is that area of uncertainty where it will likely be a mix/ice in central IL but could/will change mostly to rain by the peak of the system as it moves across our area Monday evening. Some models like the NAM pick up with more Freezing Rain event for that region and the HRRR has a much slimmer area of mix/Ice and has more Rain for that middle region.
Below I have a "guess" for the Snowfall totals but this is going to change in the next 24 hours I am sure:
Next I have a general map with areas that may see ice during this event. Nothing clear yet since the models are not agreeing with each other yet but we will see what changes in the next 24 hours!
Now I will show some of the models and what they are showing. The model and the type will be below each picture:
NAM snowfall totals
GFS snowfall totals
NAM Freezing Rain (Ice) Totals
NAM model at 4pm on Monday
That is all for now. As always message me or leave a comment if you guys have any questions! Much more to come tomorrow when the models agree more with one another and there's multiple I can look through as well. Also a weak system will be coming through mid-week that may dump a couple inches in southern IL that I will continue to watch! Stay tuned!