Good afternoon everyone! Here is a brief update regarding today's weather, sorry this is late I had a busy morning!
Here in Champaign it is currently a Freezing Rain/Sleet mix, and this should continue to hold (change to sleet) for the next couple of hours before changing to mostly snow. The current snow/mix line is from a Hardin to Waverly to Clinton to Gilman line and north, and this will continue to move slowly to the east throughout the day today, ending sometime during the late evening!
Some ice has already accumulated here in Champaign and ice and sleet will continue to accumulate over the next couple hours here and areas to the south and east (see the areas in the "medium" ice risk from yesterday's map which I will attach below).
snowfall: 7-10 inches (all snow from now on ending around 7pm)
heaviest snow: now-3pm
snowfall: 4-7 inches (generally 4-6),
Mix/Sleet now-1:30pm, snow/mostly snow 1:30pm-8pm
heaviest snow: 2-6pm
Other area snowfall forecasts:
Other areas, see map below! Thanks and everyone stay safe!
Good evening everyone! This is the second update regarding the weather within the next 24 hours across portions of Illinois. I will have the last main update sometime tomorrow morning! This post will also be relatively short.
Generally, mostly rain (heavy at times) will cover Illinois during the nighttime hours tonight. This will start changing over to wintry precipitation from northwest (Quad Cities) to southeast overnight with by sunrise the freeze line being somewhere from a Hardin to Taylorville to Rantoul line and continue southeast throughout the day. Most areas above I70 will start as rain, then to freezing rain, then to sleet, and most will change over to snow during the day on Thursday. The first round is almost completely rain (ending around sunrise in Central Illinois) with the second round being mostly wintry precipitation starting around mid-morning. This will taper off from west to east during the evening hours on Thursday and will be completely done by at least midnight, if not as early as 9pm!
Snowfall: 6-9 inches
Timing: Rain from now until 6am, Wintry mix (ice or sleet) 6-10am, Snow from 10/11am until 7/8pm
Heaviest snow: 10:30-3:30pm
Snowfall: 4-7 inches
Timing: Rain from now until 8am, Wintry Mix (ice or sleet) 8-1/2pm, Snow from 1/2pm-9pm
Heaviest snow: 1:30-6pm
Here are some forecasts at the current time:
Some other thoughts and concerns:
Flooding: Flash flooding is possible to likely throughout the state of Illinois throughout this event, especially south of I72. 1-2.5(+?) inches of rain will fall in these areas on top of mostly frozen soil so much of this will runoff into ditches and streams causing the possibilities of some flash flooding!
Strong winds (brief blizzard-like conditions): This system will also bring very strong wind gusts along with it (35-45moh gusts at times tomorrow afternoon, especially along and near the I72 corridor). Besides 1-2 inch per hour the snow rates, this wind coupled with this is showing signs of possible blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon so stay alert!
Sleet mixing with snow: A lot of the wintry mix appears likely that it will mostly fall as sleet at the current time. This will limit some of the snowfall estimates along and near the I72 corridor. Sudden shifts in the track of the system can mean very stark differences in snowfall in parts of this area with sharp snowfall gradients. If the sleet stays more north and over a longer period of time, expect snowfall to be on the lower side and the opposite case would result in most snow along areas along I72. At the moment the I72 corridor seems to be the cut off area for this.
Severe Weather: There is Severe Weather expected throughout the Southern Plains (tonight) and throughout the Mid-South during the day tomorrow. Despite strong to very strong wind shear, lower CAPE values are limiting the development of a potential outbreak scenario. Nonetheless, severe weather, including a couple tornadoes, is expected over the next 24-30 hours (see maps below)!
Thanks and this is all for now! I hopefully will have a slightly more detailed post in the morning but ran out of time tonight! Stay tuned!
This is the first update for the major system developing in the southern plains and rocketing across the Ohio River Valley mid to late this week! Major, possibly significant winter weather along with severe weather and flooding are all likely with this event!
Generally, this event will start out as rain throughout the region during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Throughout the early morning and daylight morning hours Thursday north of I70, especially north of I72 earlier one, will change to wintry precipitation. Most of the precipitation will tapper out throughout Thursday evening and early night hours from west to east throughout the state. Higher snow, sleet, and ice amounts could be possible, but exact amounts are unclear due to the event still being 36 hours out. It is also important to note the very strong winds associated with this system that could cause lots of problems as well!
The models are starting to agree more with one another. The HRRR is still showing a slightly more southern track due to a slightly more south trough projection Wednesday Night in the Southern Plains while the system is forming, leading to a slightly more southern track comparing to the NAM.
Below I have some very general forecasts of what could happen. More specific updates will come Wednesday Evening and throughout the day Thursday!
Severe weather is possible during Wednesday Night in the Southern Plains and on Thursday over the lower Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys.
Wednesday Night the storms will fire around and after Midnight over areas near the Red River Valley in Oklahoma and Texas. These storms will continue northeastward during the nighttime hours.
Thursday is potentially more significant although some details still remain unclear. The system starts to veer out so winds because slightly more southwesterly in the lower levels, but the major concern is the lack of instability in place. Despite ample dew points, the lack of instability limits storm growth and how strong storms can get on Thursday. Nonetheless, some strong to severe storms will be likely in these regions.
See the outlook maps I created below (also poste in the outlooks tab). Stay tuned and more updates to come soon!
Good afternoon everyone! This is the second main update for the winter storm that will be going through our region over the next 48-54 hours! There have been some minor changes since but generally not much has changed since the last post.
Currently, it is raining over a majority of Illinois. Throughout the night tonight and tomorrow, this will change over to wintry mix, then to snow from northwest to southeast. Some of this is expected to freeze over so most areas will likely have a layer of ice tonight when it changes over to snow, so be careful! See the "transition to snow" map below:
Depending on where you live, there will still be two main times of heavier precipitation during this event. Tuesday night-Wednesday evening and Thursday morning into the afternoon. The first patch is most significant and will bring the highest amounts of snow with it.
Below are the snowfall totals for each time period. Daytime is 6am-6pm and nighttime is 6pm-6am
Below is currently my forecast with this event from now until Thursday Night. NOTICE that the Chicago region is more on this forecast than from the maps above. This is due to likely lake-effect enhancement Wednesday night and Thursday which the models are currently showing. Generally not including this, the Chicago area will receive 5-10 inches of snow but due to some more snow later on, the amounts are higher.
This forecast can still change some although at the current time this is my best thinking due to the recent model trends. It is important to note that some areas within the "12-18" possibly could receive 18-20 in very localized areas and some could receive 22-25 in the 16-22 area. This is due to very small areas of heavy bands of snow but generally in these areas the general totals will be what is forecasted below:
For more local forecasts for Central Illinois:
Jacksonville: 14-18 inches
Springfield: 14-18 inches
Decatur: 14-18 inches
Bloomington: 15-20 inches
Champaign: 15-20 inches
Peoria: 12-16 inches
Quincy: 10-14 inches
Below I also have a map with the ice risk. Above the purple line ins during the first half of the event and below the line is the latter half of the event. This is all for now, if there are any major changes I will provide updates!