Good morning everyone! I haven't talked about weather in a long time! This has been a more quiet spring for our region so far, although that is likely to change in the coming weeks!
Today's threat will focus in the Eastern Midwest and into the Eastern Ohio River Valley throughout this afternoon. All threats will be likely with a few tornados possible, especially across Indiana and Western Ohio, but even at this time there are still some uncertainties. Nonetheless, all threats will be likely from Western Ohio and west, and areas to the east of Western Ohio it will be a more damaging wind threat.
As of now, it appears storms will develop near the Illinois/Indiana border and areas nearby to the east. The HRRR is hinting at more development across the I74 corridor early on and a more messy set up along the advancing warm front. The NAM shows a more clean warm sector with storms forming along the Stateline and moving east.
The important factors are the amount of wind shear and the amount of CAPE (instability) that will be in place ahead of this set up. Before I talk about the main models, I'll bring up 14z mesoscale analysis and the 6 hour forecast from this on the SPC website. This to me is showing a mix between the two models, suggesting CAPE values of 1000-1500+ will be in place near the target area by 4pm ET with ample wind shear getting in place by this time as well.
Mesoscale Analysis of Storm Relative Helicity at 4pm ET
Mesoscale Analysis of CAPE at 4pm ET
The main problem with the HRRR is showing the lack of low level winds, especially at around 850mb in the atmosphere. The NAM shows a very robust and strong 850mb jet over the target area, and slightly more southerly. The HRRR doesn't necessarily show a tightening low over Central Indiana by 5pm ET which makes the winds more out of the southwest, closer to the lower levels as well, along with the lack of stronger winds. Also, the HRRR shows slightly less instability than the NAM, correlating with a more messy set up and not as a clear atmosphere from this morning's convection.
NAM 850mb winds at 3pm ET
HRRR 850mb winds at 3pm ET
NAM at 5pm ET
HRRR 5pm ET
Nonetheless, severe weather will be likely across this area throughout this afternoon. Below I have an outlook I made for today along with general timings for the severe weather. I am a little bold with the outlook with including a "minor" risk although between the NAM and the mesoscale analysis I'm feeling more confident with this area being the focus area for severe weather today. I could be wrong, but we will see how today goes and I'll learn, weather is always changing!
All for today! I am leaving to go chase for the first time in nearly a month! Stay tuned!