This is my last post over today's storm. This morning I posted a couple maps on my Facebook as I did not have time to create a post due to the first day of classes today! This is a more detailed update than that one this morning since I have had some time free up this afternoon!
This morning here in Champaign we received less than an inch of snow with a brief window of precipitation this morning. other areas received some ice to the south and west but the precipitation this morning did not go north of I72 in Illinois for the most part as expected. This is the only snowfall that the I72 corridor will see during the whole event besides possibly a dusting at the tail end of the event midday Tuesday.
It is currently 2:30 in the afternoon and the first snow bands are starting to come across the Mississippi River into West-central IL (more specifically the Rock Island/Mercer/Henderson/Warren/Knox county areas). Expect this to continue moving eastward and "fill in" the entire north third of IL by 7pm or so this evening. This will continue as light to moderate snow overnight and into the morning on Tuesday. The Snow will generally tapper off from West to East and IL should generally be in the clear by Tuesday afternoon.
The snowfall forecasts have generally stayed the same today for the most part, besides maybe move a tad to the north. There is a possibility that the Chicago metro area may see 6-8 due to a small enhancement affect from the lake, but we will see. The HRRR picks up on that and the NAM does not.
Below is my Snowfall forecast:
As I discussed in my first post. There will be an ice component to this system as well. Generally in IL this area will encompass everything between I72 and Highway 24. This small region should receive around a tenth to two tenths of Ice during this system but a few localized areas of upwards of a three tenths of an inch of Ice is possible. Here is that area of concern below. Some areas to the north May receive some Ice (mostly Sleet) as well but the main concern will be that area between the I72 and Highway 24 corridors.
Below I will attach a few of the models snowfall maps and precipitation maps at Midnight Monday Night. Also watching a small disturbance Wednesday that could bring 0-2 inches to the Central and Southern IL regions. Stay tuned! Thanks for reading!
HRRR Midnight Monday Night
NAM Midnight Monday Night
Good evening guys!
In this post I will mostly talk about the system that will be tracking into the mid-Mississippi River Valley early next week but I will briefly touch on the weakening system coming into our region tonight (Saturday night). Also, I will have 1-2 updates Sunday (for sure Sunday evening) over Monday's system on here as well.
Generally 0-1 inches of snow from I72 and north in IL, and generally .5-2 north of I80 in northern IL. Also a glaze of ice is possible in Central IL but nothing more than that. Most of this will come late Saturday Night and Sunday Morning.
The much bigger event comes Monday Morning into our region. There's a Low pressure system that will make it's way out of the Ark/La/Tx region Monday morning and shot up to the northeast into the Ozarks region by Monday afternoon. This system starts to lose it's strength into Tuesday over the Eastern Midwest, I would assume due to the occlusion or the weakening of the upper level trough but I hadn't looked into that much yet.
Precip should start in central IL Monday morning and Snow should start in Northern IL (for now) around or just after noon on Monday, with the heaviest snow Monday evening. I will have start times in a later post when this event becomes a little more clear.
First, here's a general "what to expect" of this system map I made:
There is that area of uncertainty where it will likely be a mix/ice in central IL but could/will change mostly to rain by the peak of the system as it moves across our area Monday evening. Some models like the NAM pick up with more Freezing Rain event for that region and the HRRR has a much slimmer area of mix/Ice and has more Rain for that middle region.
Below I have a "guess" for the Snowfall totals but this is going to change in the next 24 hours I am sure:
Next I have a general map with areas that may see ice during this event. Nothing clear yet since the models are not agreeing with each other yet but we will see what changes in the next 24 hours!
Now I will show some of the models and what they are showing. The model and the type will be below each picture:
NAM snowfall totals
GFS snowfall totals
NAM Freezing Rain (Ice) Totals
NAM model at 4pm on Monday
That is all for now. As always message me or leave a comment if you guys have any questions! Much more to come tomorrow when the models agree more with one another and there's multiple I can look through as well. Also a weak system will be coming through mid-week that may dump a couple inches in southern IL that I will continue to watch! Stay tuned!
This is my update for the Winter weather for New Years Day.
There is still some model disagreement with the winter storm tomorrow morning. Overall a good swath of ice in the mid Mississippi River valley as well as some snow as well.
First I will discuss what causes Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow.
Here in the first weather sounding shows Freezing Rain. In all pictures, the diagonal purple line shows the freezing line, and the red circle shows temperatures above freezing and the blue circles show below freezing temperatures. With this one (compare this with the others), this shows a large warm, inversion layer above the surface with a slim area of below freezing at the surface. Here's the picture below
Next I have the sounding with Sleet. This shows a small inversion layer in the mid levels, barely above freezing, with the rest after it between that and the surface below freezing, as seen below
Here is a sounding with snow, which shows the temperatures below freezing the entire sounding!
NOW for the forecast:
This is still very tricky to do but I'll give it a shot.
Generally across central IL, totals for ice will be .1-.3 with some high totals possible/likely. There's a lot of factors that go into this so a small change can be the different between a glaze and an inch of ice. These totals are the amount of ice accumulated before rain changes and settles in. Here is the ice and snow totals below. The large snow amounts of snow is where snow is the main form of precipitation, and the lesser amounts in central IL is snow that falls Friday afternoon after the rain.
Here are the forecast start times of freezing precipitation as well
Thanks for reading and hopefully this does not become as bad as some models are showing it at the moment!
This will be my first post on my sight. I decided back in November to make a weather blog section of my site where I can share my briefings and forecasts instead of cluttering my Facebook with them and I can actually find them when I want to go back and revisit the briefings, plus it's somewhat easier to do this way!
We have an interesting system coming into the Midwest here on New Year's Day, 2021. There's a potential of a possible Ice Storm here in some areas. There are still some uncertainties which will become clearer during the day Thursday, in which I will make another post Thursday evening when the models have more of an agreement.
Generally, the system arrives Thursday night into Arkansas and moves northeast into the lower Wabash River region Friday afternoon. Freezing Rain will start out about anywhere in IL, depending on where you are. The Freezing Rain will start along the I72 corridor around 4-6am Friday morning. All models have it changing to rain at some point but whether it rains most of the time (Track 1) or very little of the time (which means much more freezing rain, Track 2) is still uncertain.
Track 1, which the NAM seems to have stayed with, depicts a system that tracks more north, in which case shifts the area of freezing rain concern more to the north. Here's a map I created below showing this.
Track 2, which the HRRR and RAP are sticking with, tracks the system more south, in which case shifts the area of Freezing Rain more to the south. Here's a map below I made.
This is where things stand right now with this system. I will have another update Thursday Night, and hopefully there will be more agreement by then. There is also a possibility of some light snow in central IL Saturday night that is still unclear as well!
Thanks for reading!